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$90/ Barrel Oil Just ahead?

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Superglide Ken View Drop Down
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    Posted: 14/October/2004 at 8:18pm

I have been seeing this on my price charts for over a month now, and none of the fundamentals shaping up in the market are saying any different. $90 oil translates in $3/gallon gas in the US and $1.25/litre here in Canada.I expect that we will see this next month IMO.

 

Might be time to dust off the portables and buy the pad machines before much longer! lol

 



Edited by Superglide Ken
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Steaminpile View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Steaminpile Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14/October/2004 at 9:24pm
I would just raise my prices and be thankful I bought a slide in.
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Superglide Ken View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Superglide Ken Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14/October/2004 at 9:41pm
Well, even if it happens, it is not sustainable beyond the short term. A price that high would shut down alot of demand in the market and bring on the Oil sands development and shale deposits in a very major way.If it does spike up , it will be coming back down by February at the latest when Winter starts winding down. The huricane season has made it almost certain that there will be fuel shortages this winter in the US market. The oil in the salt domes is being tapped right now. Longer term, the demand from China means that from this point forward, the world has changed, and the days of cheap oil are now done.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Steaminpile Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14/October/2004 at 11:55pm

Canada should REALLY start tapping some of their reserves for "future generations"

I don't think there will be the oil and gas we use now in the future.

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Superglide Ken View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Superglide Ken Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15/October/2004 at 1:26am
Hopefully we will be into a "Hydrogen" economy by then. Still is at least 20 years away though.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Ed Valentine Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15/October/2004 at 9:53am

Ken;

I honestly do not think that oil will go to $90.00 (US)---next mth, or next year---  because if it did, it would literally shut down the world economy and  would cause mayhem and a greater depression then the Great Depression ever was.

 

No, I would think that the US (can't speak for  Canada) would ever allow that to happen. And, Saudia Arabia, and a few other oil producer Royal Families would jeopardise their firm hold and positions in their own countries.

World War III would be knocking at our front doors, my friends.

 

Good Fortune (???);

Ed Valentine

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Superglide Ken View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Superglide Ken Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15/October/2004 at 10:51am

Well Ed, I will just say that many insiders did not forsee $50 oil this year either.Only thing for sure that you can expect is the unexpected. $90 oil in real inflation adjusted terms would take the price only slightly higher than it was in 1981 when it topped out at $80/barrel as measured in 2004 dollars. Do not remember the world coming to an end then either. Biggest risk today if the $90 scenario happens is the 3rd world countries having a massive debt default all around the same time. If that happens, some bankers are going to loss some money, but the world will still go on.

 

Russia is the only country that has the capacity to threaten the USA in military terms at this point in time, and with oil near $90, they would be making so much money from the oil they export, that there is no chance of that happening in the near future. For that reason, I do not share your concern about the world being in any danger. It would cause the US  to speed up the transition to the hydrogen economy however, and no doubt encourage energy conservation in a very serious way that up to now has been avoided, so in the long term, it could be viewed as positive.



Edited by Superglide Ken
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Superglide Ken Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17/October/2004 at 3:30am
Oh, just one last thing I forgot to mention. Some of the economists working for the White House have said that oil may end up going as high as $148/barrel as soon as next year! I personally don't believe that will happen because demand would be choked off long before it got that high, but who knows for sure? It can't be ruled out even if unlikely.A rebellion in Saudi Arabia that turned it into an islamic state could certainly put the price that high, and that event is closer than most people know. I certainly would not want to be short oil in the months ahead. The long positions I took out last month are certainly looking good these days.

Edited by Superglide Ken
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Shortwun View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Shortwun Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17/October/2004 at 6:14am

Originally posted by Superglide Ken Superglide Ken wrote:

Hopefully we will be into a "Hydrogen" economy by then. Still is at least 20 years away though.

This from the Aussie forum::

Author Topic : Dreaming!
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8/10/04 : 20:31:44      reply with quotesend message to royalblue
Driving today and saw a beautiful sight! (No not the curvy 2 legged kind!) It was about 10m long, 3.5m high and had steam rising out of an exhaust stack at the rear. Followed it for a while and admired the fact that this Mercedes powered vehicle was transporting people around and the only emission is steam! No smelly diesel, no noxious fumes and quiet as!!! The technological wonder is a hydrogen fuel cell powered bus.

Makes me wonder, what technology we may have at our fingertips in say 10, or even 5 years time!
aussteam
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8/10/04 : 20:46:53      reply with quote send message to aussteam
Miniture Nuclear Reactor powered TM, that's what I'm dreaming of. "Feel the Power"

Ron
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14/10/04 : 2:22:39      reply with quote send message to Freshaire
saw that yesterday as well, ash, driving down Stirling hway Peppy Grove.. weird-arse looking thing, enough steam coming out of it to be looking for the whistle that is bound to be on it somewhere!

 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MR. STEAMER Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17/October/2004 at 8:51am
Naw the price will drop back under 50 buck.... The oil producing nations are afraid that alternatives will take a foot hold in the market.  hybrid and bio are already starting to make moves
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Superglide Ken View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Superglide Ken Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17/October/2004 at 5:13pm

That wont help them this time, Mr Steamer. The OPEC nations can't produce enough oil output to meet the new demand that is coming out of China. China don't care either. They just build the higher cost into the product prices they charge. It still beats the prices that American manufacturers can produce. In 4 short years, the production of goods out of China will exceed the goods output of the United States, putting them into 1st place as manufacturer to the world. In just 5 years, the number of cars produced there will exceed the number made in detroit. This is the new reality that North America is faced with.It is not something that will be reversing anytime soon.

 

By a year from now, the output of oil will begin declining all around the world , and growing demand will run right into shrinking supply. Then $100+ oil is coming. Too bad the debt load in Canada and the USA will not allow the west to win the bidding war for it.

 

 The war with Iraq you see was never really about any WMD, it always was about oil. I posted an article about that on ICS 2 years ago. The Bush government has known that this supply demand crunch was coming since at least 4 years ago, and wanted access to the Iraqi oil supplies to deny China access to the world's 2nd greatest reserves by getting there first, which they did by making up the WMD story so they could invade and take Saddam out. It is the reason that Korea, a true threat with WMD was ignored, but Iraq, with the oil , was not.I never disagreed with that objective BTW, since North America needs access to that oil, and I would rather we got it than the Chinese.

 

 America has set up 37 permanent bases in the region as a result. What was not counted on was that the Iraqi's , with the help of the other fighters from surrounding Islamic states , would fight back and keep production restrained to only 2 M barrels per day or less because of the instability still happening there. It was planned to have the production up to 4 to 6 Million Barrels by now.Life's a bitch sometimes, and dosn't go as people plan. That is why it is crunch time now. Prepare to dig a little deeper for your fuel from this time forward, cause this is a permanent change to higher fuel prices that is happening, and will accellerate as the Chinese increase their car purchases in the years ahead at a very rapid rate.



Edited by Superglide Ken
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Superglide Ken View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Superglide Ken Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23/October/2004 at 12:48pm
Well, the price is still going up. The big jump is still a week or two away. Expect that to happen around the first week of November when the first of the large arctic fronts heads down into the northestern US where most of the heating oil is used. That's where the shortages are going to be felt first. No relief on the natural gas front either. The price just leaped over $9/thousand cubic ft yesterday. My charts tell me that we are heading to  $15 gas by December there too.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dennis Conner Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11/November/2004 at 9:35am

Bump!

 

Missed that big jump last week!

 

Oil is DOWN since this Kenny post...only has to double in price in the next 20 days for Kenny to be correct.  Now I know where the millions he made selling his companys went, why he stayed at the Kampground in Vegas, and why his chickens are hungry! 

 

Natural gas at $7.678....kenny wrong AGAIN!

 

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Superglide Ken View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Superglide Ken Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11/November/2004 at 12:39pm
I'm not wrong, just off on the timing by a bit. The price has not topped yet. Just waiting for the first of the big arctic fronts to move down from Canada. Once that happens, oil will move up very quickly. I remember how some thought I was wrong on Gold too. It is now at a 16 year high, and getting ready to make a run up to $1000/oz. Those that want to double or triple their money don't have long to get in for the ride up. Once it clears $450/oz, that rise will be a rapid one. I expect that to happen in a week or two.

Edited by Superglide Ken
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