I put my money where my mouth is...........

Superglide Ken wrote: FriendlyHammer wrote: Superglide Ken wrote: The developing Depression has caused the price to over-correct. It is now forming a new bottom before resuming it's climb to back above $100 in Nov this year. You still don't get it. Even when my timing is off I still make money. If I want to go long I buy 2/3 of my options as call options, and 1/3 of my options as put options. Because of the leverage I have if the price goes up I make lots of money. If the price goes down I make money on the put options and sell the call options. So I still make money. This is called using a Butterfly Straddle. It works very well as long as the commodity is moving either up or down. The only way I can lose on my options on oil is if it does nothing.I really don't care which way it goes as long as it moves!

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Superglide Ken wrote: 11/June/2008 at 5:19pm Now the question is whats next? Gas will reach $5/gal by August 31/08

Then you haven't been reading long or carefully. Following his advice would have lost you half your money last month and 70% for the year. Almost the only thing he has correctly predicted is the past, AFTER IT HAS ALREADY HAPPENED.

Edited by FriendlyHammer - 10/December/2008 at 12:01am

Superglide Ken wrote: It is called hedging. I buy long and short positions simultaneously. I never enter into a completly one way bet, but most of my positions were short ones until last Friday. That way I make money which ever way oil moves.

Edited by FriendlyHammer - 09/December/2008 at 9:33pm

Superglide Ken wrote: FriendlyHammer wrote: Oil will make a good long-term investment, regardless.  The lower it goes the more attactive it becomes. Following Kenny's advice up to this moment (including last month, especially), however, would have lost you a fortune. Kenny took positions then, according to him, and the math on that is a loss between 40-80%, depending upon when you took his advice.  What a moron! Yes I took positions alright, short positions all the way down to $40 on oil from $145 till last Friday when $40 was reached, and made thousands doing it. Now it is time to go long. A rise of near $100 is in store for anyone that is smart enough to see what a once in a lifetime opportunity this really is.This is where a $5000 contract pays you $100,000US in the next 6 months when oil goes back to $140/barrel by June 2009.

SGK,

Some of my family is involved with manufacturing products in China and Taiwan. I'm going to have to disagree with you when you say that China's demand for oil will drive the price back up.

In China factories are a dime a dozen. Some places even have "factories" set up in the back of restaurants. Most of the US's products come from China. We aren't buying many products right now because of the recession. Factories over in China are closing left and right because we are not consuming their goods. This is very evident by the low amount of sea containers that are coming into the US.

Only the strong factories over in China are staying open. But when all the other factories close, they are increasing unemployment and you are getting the same effect as over here. That means fewer cars on the road, and less demand for gas. Don't get me wrong, China has A LOT of cars. Even over the summer before stuff got bad they were putting as many cars as you said on the road everyday.

China financed our war and holds most of our debt, in effect they own the US. We are tied to them for life. When the US suffers, they suffer because we buy their goods.

Sometimes I think there should be a separate forum for investing on here A skiing message board I'm on got so tired of flaming politics threads in the lounge forum that they made a politics forum. It's kind of funny because the ring leader that always starts trouble copies and pastes long articles that are controversial and never make sense. Sound familiar? LOL

Maybe it's just me, but how can oil go up if we are in a recession and unemployment is so high? Think about it. If you lose your job you don't need to drive to work everyday. If your not working chances are you won't be driving around much to go out to eat or to buy stuff. Demand for oil falls and the supply of oil rises. With a rising oil inventory and lack of demand oil will continue to fall/hold where it is now. It's called the law of supply and demand.

OPEC can cut production all they want to reverse this trend and attempt to increase oil prices, but they will still drown in oil because nobody will buy it.  Everyone will be broke or just won't have a need for oil because they won't be driving anywhere since they are out of a job.

OPEC thought that when gas was at $4 a gallon everyone would continue to buy it. They were right for awhile, but eventually the sh*t hit the fan when nobody could keep paying $4 a gallon for gas. Everyone thought the Americans would keep spending, but $4 a gallon gas proved everyone wrong. Even Europe couldn't pay high gas prices. Gas made EVERYTHING go up in price because for some stupid reason DIESEL was costing more than gas when it should have cost less. As we all know just about everything in stores is shipped by trucks that run off of diesel.

Commodities including oil should not be traded on the stock market, as someone else pointed out. Speculators in commodities should be taxed to death for trading commodities trying to make a quick buck.

You can charge $1 a gallon for gas and you will sell a lot of it. You can charge $8 a gallon for gas and barely sell any, if any. Just because you are selling gas for $8 a gallon doesn't mean you will make more than if gas was sold for $1 a gallon. You have to sell at the equilibrium price, what the market is willing to pay and is able to pay.




Edited by luvsnow - 09/December/2008 at 5:42pm